Monday, 25 November 2013
Game theory and how it fits in geopolitical forecasting
Good read through NYTimes
"Could this possibly be what will happen? Certainly Bueno de Mesquita has his critics, who argue that the proprietary software he uses can’t be trusted and may cast doubt on the larger enterprise of making predictions. But he has published a large number of startlingly precise predictions that turned out to be accurate, many of them in peer-reviewed academic journals. For example, five years before Ayatollah Khomeini died in 1989, Bueno de Mesquita predicted in the journal PS that Khomeini would be succeeded by Ali Khamenei (which he was), who himself would be succeeded by a then-less-well-known cleric named Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (which he may well be). Last year, he forecast when President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan would be forced out of office and was accurate to within a month. In “The Predictioneer’s Game,” a book coming out next month that was written for a popular audience, Bueno de Mesquita offers dozens more stories of his forecasts. And as for Iran’s bomb?"
"Could this possibly be what will happen? Certainly Bueno de Mesquita has his critics, who argue that the proprietary software he uses can’t be trusted and may cast doubt on the larger enterprise of making predictions. But he has published a large number of startlingly precise predictions that turned out to be accurate, many of them in peer-reviewed academic journals. For example, five years before Ayatollah Khomeini died in 1989, Bueno de Mesquita predicted in the journal PS that Khomeini would be succeeded by Ali Khamenei (which he was), who himself would be succeeded by a then-less-well-known cleric named Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (which he may well be). Last year, he forecast when President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan would be forced out of office and was accurate to within a month. In “The Predictioneer’s Game,” a book coming out next month that was written for a popular audience, Bueno de Mesquita offers dozens more stories of his forecasts. And as for Iran’s bomb?"
Friday, 22 November 2013
Hostile. Brilliant. One for the history books
One for the history books, really.
Brilliant hostile stuff from Mitch. Been down for almost 4 sessions and they come back. And how.
Last 10 overs, England : 9/6. From 3/82 to 91/8.
Brilliant hostile stuff from Mitch. Been down for almost 4 sessions and they come back. And how.
Last 10 overs, England : 9/6. From 3/82 to 91/8.
Thursday, 21 November 2013
Fate? Coincidence? What?
Happened to meet a colleague from my earlier company today. Was a nice time to meet him and talk and such. Pleasantries exchanged, connection and communication established. Old friends enquired about. Pretty much what one does if they meet their old friends. Considering the best interests of time too, of course.
But now I think - is it by design or by accident? Is there a method to all this madness? A very organized way that we follow... something pre-ordained and happens like clock work... or is the entire event chain entirely random?
Atheists / non-believers: try answering this question.
But now I think - is it by design or by accident? Is there a method to all this madness? A very organized way that we follow... something pre-ordained and happens like clock work... or is the entire event chain entirely random?
Atheists / non-believers: try answering this question.
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