Tips and interesting thoughts on the Indian economy and markets

Good read. Though I don't *totally* accept with the views expressed, they are perhaps the most interesting that I have read in a while.




I would have liked to seen something on the power, energy and distribution sector too. Perhaps a bit on defence... if it can be privatized, made into public listed companies and such. They will become good avenues for investment too.




Link here

Brilliant article by an Ambassador

excellent. Though I will not totally agree with the thoughts, its pretty exhaustive, interesting and very informative.


A balanced view, in my opinion.


A few good lines:


"
Several reasons could be attributed to the 'new thinking' in Beijing. First and foremost, China may sense that under Modi's leadership, India is all set to pursue a genuinely independent foreign policy.
The idea of an 'independent foreign policy' has been a cliche in Indian discourses and has been bandied about cavalierly by many governments in India.
"
>> My opninion: this bit remains to be seen. Its early days and one couldn't be sure about a summer after seeing one sparrow. But its surely a plausible reason.


A bit on what he calls the Modi Doctrine:


"

Modi has a pronounced 'India-first' approach, which is a rooted belief as well.

But he is not dogmatic when it comes to the pursuit of India's national interests.

Nor is it divested of emotions. The human factor is obvious from his trademark slogan, 'Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas' (meaning, inclusive development) and he visualises the foreign policy as an extension of national policies.

India needs help for development from all available sources and there is willingness to source it without pride or prejudice.

India needs a friendly external environment that is conducive to development and acts as a buffer for its national security. Modi places great store on regional cooperation.

Modi visualises that India's 'influence' in its region is critically dependent on its capacity to carry the small neighbours along on the path of growth and prosperity that would make them genuine stakeholders -- rather than by demanding respect or insisting on 'influence' on the basis of its pre-eminence in the region as a military and economic power and through 'muscle-flexing'.

He reposes confidence in the country's inherent advantages as a regional power and is not paranoid about any 'string of pearls' chocking India.

Modi believes in promoting India's commonality of interests with other emerging powers that also have been denied their due role in the global political and economic architecture, which was erected by the West out of the debris of World War II and has become archaic, but remains impervious to change and reform.

"
Another:
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It is entirely conceivable that at some point sooner rather than later the SCO countries may move toward trading in their national currencies, creating banking institutions to fund intra-regional projects and forming preferential trade regimes.
Needless to say, with India, Pakistan and Iran inside the SCO tent, the grouping becomes a lead player in Afghanistan.
"
>> My opinion: The author is perhaps trying to play the Af card too much. It cant be said for certain that the US wants to muck around in Af for ever. Agreed that Af has about a 1trillion dollar mineral deposit. However, if it were to be said that US wants to stay there for ever, why the talk even of coming out of Af? Will they not want to stay there forever? The Af operation is costly. Period. And like anything else in life, over time, US influence will wane and without security forces [boots on ground], influence in business will drastically reduce


"
Finally, the Silk Road as such would get a massive fillip and within the SCO framework, India could aspire to gain greater access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
India's energy security gets strengthened, too. The time may have come for the creation of an SCO energy club, an idea first mooted by Putin a decade ago.
New possibilities arise for initiating trans-regional energy projects under the auspices of the SCO, such as the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline.
"
>> My opinion: Energy security is paramount and anything sensible to secure it should be pursued


Entire article here

Flanker diplomacy

thro INDRUS

"
In the past Jakarta had a pact with China to train its pilots and provide technical support for its Flanker fleet. But Jakarta has now veered round to the view that the Indian Air Force (IAF) is an ideal mentor. For, the IAF has earned a worldwide reputation as a dogfight duke after beating the powerful US Air Force in a series of Cope India air exercises. Plus, in three wars – in 1965, 1971 and 1999 – it has routed the Pakistan Air Force, which is no chump.
"
 

Game theory and how it fits in geopolitical forecasting

Good read through NYTimes

"Could this possibly be what will happen? Certainly Bueno de Mesquita has his critics, who argue that the proprietary software he uses can’t be trusted and may cast doubt on the larger enterprise of making predictions. But he has published a large number of startlingly precise predictions that turned out to be accurate, many of them in peer-reviewed academic journals. For example, five years before Ayatollah Khomeini died in 1989, Bueno de Mesquita predicted in the journal PS that Khomeini would be succeeded by Ali Khamenei (which he was), who himself would be succeeded by a then-less-well-known cleric named Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (which he may well be). Last year, he forecast when President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan would be forced out of office and was accurate to within a month. In “The Predictioneer’s Game,” a book coming out next month that was written for a popular audience, Bueno de Mesquita offers dozens more stories of his forecasts. And as for Iran’s bomb?"


 

Moily and oily deals

Moily has lately been in the news for a lot of reasons.

a. For suggesting that petrol bunks can be closed at 8PM or so to reduce consumption [obviously, he was misunderstood or so he said after the media exactly understood what he meant.]
b. For writing imposition letters request letters to all CM's asking them to stagger office timings [for govt offices. But then, do they ever work so much? Shouldnt 3 days weeks do rather instead of staggered shift timings? Anyway, very little work gets done... so how does it matter whether it happens at 4.00PM or 4.00AM as long as it happens [or doesnt happen?]
c. For also writing to CM's to suggest that one day a week, people travel by buses.

A few more things are happening... moily and his oily ministerial secretaries and their deputy underlings are looking at more oil opportunities - oily deals if you like. They are currently in advanced negotiations with Ramirez [Venezuela Minister] for getting an agreement signed for OIL / ONGC [OVL] to get oil fields et al.

Apparently, should get done in a few weeks or so they say. Off to Caracas in a few weeks, Moily, to sign more oily deals on butter paper.

as an aside - a few suggested Iran oil too - well, we are trying it. But a lot of logistical difficulties remain.
A few:
a. Antagonise US. [dont do it excessively]
b. Insurance for ships becomes a huge problem [Iran suddenly stops the shop from leaving their port]
c. Iran takes money in rupees upto an extent (30%, if I am not mistaken) . A bilateral deal -good for India. Doesnt need to dip into forex reserves and is a win-win for both countries. but pt a & b together complicates  things to a great extent.

I track Venezuela and whether Nicolas Maduro will survive in office till next yr mid as part of GJP

Update: By happenstance. Yay, with the Iran deal done, it will be a lot more friendly regime. Next 6 months should either break or build. Time should tell.
I also realize that India has a deal with Iran in such a way that it can use Euros for payment of the rest... not necessarily USD. Interesting, that!

India and the danger of the demographic dividend

A nice timely article from FT Alphaville.

The intent here isn’t to blindly counter the optimism of the headline numbers but to point to the enormous policy challenges that exist (and have existed but not been met). Sure, the pressures created by imbalances will force change over time in one way or another, but choosing not to preempt them ignores the sad danger inherent in potential.

A good read

A tidbit: More take on China and revisiting his early '11 predictions, Michael Pettis elaborates 

Observations on Indian Foreign Policy over the years

Splitting the original post into 2 so there is logical structure. Syria and India are as different as chalk and cheese and putting both inside the same post makes little sense.

So, here goes.

Been reading up on a lot of op-eds recently. Lots of reasons behind it... general insatiable urge to lap up on why things are happening so crazily at the international front, why India did the policy decisions they have [or the lack of policies for that matter] till date and such. Another major reason is also the super forecasting that is required for the good judgment project that I am part of. [GJP is the link in case you want to know more on the same]

Was searching around for stuff and got a wealth of information:

Across Borders by JN.Dixit. he was an ex-foreign sec himself during the '90's and apparently this is a reference text book for foreign policy in the Indian Universities! Its India centric and broadly describes about what drove Indian FP from 1947-1998.

[Across borders in amazon]

I didnt realise Firstpost has good authors. This is genuinely good for the points that are mentioned. Not all are absolutely valid, mind you. But it is worth reading up. Firstpost

All of Praveen Swami's articles here

On the same note, my earlier post on the same topic with references to stellar links here

Strategic Observations on the Syrian crisis

Been reading up on a lot of op-eds recently. Lots of reasons behind it... general insatiable urge to lap up on why things are happening so crazily at the international front, why India did the policy decisions they have [or the lack of policies for that matter] till date and such. Another major reason is also the super forecasting that is required for the good judgment project that I am part of. [GJP is the link in case you want to know more on the same]

Was searching around for stuff and got a wealth of information.

a. Got good daily mailers from FP site.
b. Good material from Stratfor - unfortunately, its paid and its costly but one gets free tidbits every week or so and the ones that I get are as good as anyone can get.

All in all, a good way to start knowing more about stuff and once it gets more intriguing, it should be a good option to do some serious education in... mmh, now for more defence related studies.

Update: haha, I am over myself. I realise late that there is no relation between the title and content.

To make it more relevant, a few Syria based links [brilliant ones, IMO]

a. thro stratfor
b. real reason for syria pipe-control

I saw a lot more of articles reg the fact that Syria is in the hot seat in the ME.
Reason: Qatar [bordering Iran] has a lot of Nat Gas and wants to send it to the EU. The EU has a healthy paranoia on being dependent on Gazprom.  However, Gazprom wants to control the EU market and get a stranglehold, which quite naturally the US wants to break up. The US is sitting on a lot of shale reserves itself and wants to link up its own to Qatar's pipe and such.

A few more:
a. Syrian intervention - through guardian
b. aljazeera - syria pipelineistan
More information: IPI and TAPI proposed pipelines are perhaps a factor too. Its the energy factor too.

India Pakistan Relations: Perspectives

Brilliant read on the Indo-Pak relations.

Brookings essay by William Dalrymple

More stuff on what transpired in 2002 and why we recalled the Indian Ambassador can be read here

Aah... the advantages of doing read ups, thanks to being part of the Good Judgment Project... Strenuous... but lovely to do all this.

Coming of age

Very pleased to see India come out in full strength and get 6 medals in the Olympics.

Lots of positives. Strengthened the belief that in shooting, India is becoming a rival to reckon with. Reinforced the belief of strength in wrestling [good job Yogeshwar!. Ofcourse Sushil too], a few glaring errors in refreeing in boxing but nevertheless a medal. A surprise in badminton [honestly, I didnt expect that]

Hockey was disappointing in the sense they should have finished 6/7... not 12.

Joydeep Karmakar will take a lot of positives from this. Too bad to miss it by a small bit - but all this helps in the future competitions. He should / will take heart from this.

Surprisingly, we found 2 final entries in discus too... track and athletics - something that India has failed to do for a very long time. Brilliant there too.

Tennis was poor but it was sort of expected too [atleast I thought it wasnt a medal chance]. In badminton, P Kashyap should take a lot of confidence and positive attitude from this olympics.

Overall, an outstanding Olympic and they did surpass my personal expectation [my personal belief was this: "5 medals in 2012 and they have come of age"]. Simple fantastic.

Now for more focus and target 10+ medals in Rio. Rio, here we come.