Wednesday, 24 April 2013

Psychology of overconfidence

Been checking on various methods of estimation, seemingly, to make myself better at it.

Friend sends this gem today. Thanks Jigs.

I do a bit of forecasting for fun at good judgment project [and finished on the leader board too this year] and this seems to have even more ramifications than just plain software engineering.

As an aside: the good judgment project has got a lot of publicity - check the search engines for the same.

Snippet from the same:

In Thinking Fast and Slow, Kahneman explains a great deal of psychology as the interplay between two “systems” which govern our thoughts: System I and System II. My far-too-brief summary would be “System II does careful, rational, analytical thinking, and System I does quick, heuristic, pattern matching thinking”.
And, crucially, it’s as if evolution designed the whole thing with a key goal of keeping System II from having to do too much. Which makes plenty of sense from an evolutionary perspective — System II is slow as molasses, and incredibly costly, it should only be deployed in very, very rare situations. But you see the problem, no doubt: without thinking, how does your mind know when to invoke System II? From this perspective, many of the various “cognitive biases” of psychology make sense as elegant engineering solutions to a brutal real-world problem: how to apportion attention in real time.