Friday, 8 August 2014

Brilliant article by an Ambassador

excellent. Though I will not totally agree with the thoughts, its pretty exhaustive, interesting and very informative.

A balanced view, in my opinion.

A few good lines:

Several reasons could be attributed to the 'new thinking' in Beijing. First and foremost, China may sense that under Modi's leadership, India is all set to pursue a genuinely independent foreign policy.
The idea of an 'independent foreign policy' has been a cliche in Indian discourses and has been bandied about cavalierly by many governments in India.
>> My opninion: this bit remains to be seen. Its early days and one couldn't be sure about a summer after seeing one sparrow. But its surely a plausible reason.

A bit on what he calls the Modi Doctrine:

  • Modi has a pronounced 'India-first' approach, which is a rooted belief as well.
  • But he is not dogmatic when it comes to the pursuit of India's national interests.
  • Nor is it divested of emotions. The human factor is obvious from his trademark slogan, 'Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas' (meaning, inclusive development) and he visualises the foreign policy as an extension of national policies.
  • India needs help for development from all available sources and there is willingness to source it without pride or prejudice.
  • India needs a friendly external environment that is conducive to development and acts as a buffer for its national security. Modi places great store on regional cooperation.
  • Modi visualises that India's 'influence' in its region is critically dependent on its capacity to carry the small neighbours along on the path of growth and prosperity that would make them genuine stakeholders -- rather than by demanding respect or insisting on 'influence' on the basis of its pre-eminence in the region as a military and economic power and through 'muscle-flexing'.
  • He reposes confidence in the country's inherent advantages as a regional power and is not paranoid about any 'string of pearls' chocking India.
  • Modi believes in promoting India's commonality of interests with other emerging powers that also have been denied their due role in the global political and economic architecture, which was erected by the West out of the debris of World War II and has become archaic, but remains impervious to change and reform.
  • "
    It is entirely conceivable that at some point sooner rather than later the SCO countries may move toward trading in their national currencies, creating banking institutions to fund intra-regional projects and forming preferential trade regimes.
    Needless to say, with India, Pakistan and Iran inside the SCO tent, the grouping becomes a lead player in Afghanistan.
    >> My opinion: The author is perhaps trying to play the Af card too much. It cant be said for certain that the US wants to muck around in Af for ever. Agreed that Af has about a 1trillion dollar mineral deposit. However, if it were to be said that US wants to stay there for ever, why the talk even of coming out of Af? Will they not want to stay there forever? The Af operation is costly. Period. And like anything else in life, over time, US influence will wane and without security forces [boots on ground], influence in business will drastically reduce

    Finally, the Silk Road as such would get a massive fillip and within the SCO framework, India could aspire to gain greater access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
    India's energy security gets strengthened, too. The time may have come for the creation of an SCO energy club, an idea first mooted by Putin a decade ago.
    New possibilities arise for initiating trans-regional energy projects under the auspices of the SCO, such as the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline.
    >> My opinion: Energy security is paramount and anything sensible to secure it should be pursued

    Entire article here